💡 SPOTLIGHT
Are we ready for war with Russia? The unspoken question the West must face
French President Emmanuel Macron crossed a line, at least rhetorically, in saying that the West doesn't exclude sending troops to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia. Yet, as France Inter’s Pierre Haski posits, it may be time for the Western alliance to acknowledge that they've actually entered direct conflict with Moscow long before.
Behind the somber anniversary of the war in Ukraine and the specter of Donald Trump's possible election, hanging over the Western summit held Monday night in Paris and the risk of escalation, a hidden question is posed before us: What is the real state of Europe’s relations with Vladimir Putin's Russia? Are we at war without knowing it?
When French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the 20 or so heads of state and government to this impromptu summit Monday at the Élysée Palace, he declared: "We do not wish to go to war with the Russian people; we are determined to keep control of the escalation."
Then, at the end of the evening, Macron said out loud for the first time that he no longer ruled out sending Western troops on the ground to support Ukraine.
You will have noticed the nuance between "a war with the Russian people", and with Putin's regime, which is not named. We're a long way from the first year of the conflict when the French president was gentle with Vladimir Putin and didn't want to "humiliate Russia." Times have truly changed.
Why this martial tone? It is in line with the warnings against the Russian threat heard for several weeks in various European countries, particularly those on the eastern flank, closer to the conflict zone. To answer this question, we need to define war.
The concept of "hybrid warfare" must be introduced, as this is undoubtedly what best characterizes the situation. It's an ill-defined concept that describes the use, alongside or leading up to conventional warfare, of such tactics as cyberwarfare, disinformation, and influence. The public does not quite perceive it as war, per se, but it's an integral part of it.
French intelligence services have recorded a record number of hostile acts on Russia's part, ranging from cyberattacks on critical infrastructures in France, to disinformation operations such as the Jewish stars painted on the capital's walls after October 7, which Paris now officially attributes to the FSB, the successor to the KGB.
There are also aggressive maneuvers against the French army, in the Black Sea or off French ports; and manipulation campaigns on social networks. That's a lot.
The French and European response is twofold: both in terms of increased support for Ukraine and Monday night's reaffirmation by Emmanuel Macron that "Russia cannot and must not win its war with Ukraine."
This was the aim of the Paris meeting, at a time when the West is struggling to provide support for Ukraine. How far should we go? The French president declared that there was no consensus on sending Western troops to Ukraine, but "nothing is excluded," he said for the first time, choosing to remain in what he called "strategic ambiguity."
The other answer is to be aware of this Russian threat today and, above all, tomorrow. Vladimir Putin can look forward to unraveling the transatlantic bond in the event of Donald Trump's victory in November; he's betting on a weakening of European resistance. Here again, Europe is currently far from prepared for this scenario.
There is a risk that some will interpret Macron's sudden hard line as just political posturing. Yet to ignore what is happening on the continent is to take a major risk for Europe's collective security, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin is betting on.
— Pierre Haski / France Inter
🌎 7 THINGS TO KNOW RIGHT NOW
• Hamas calls Biden’s comments on ceasefire “premature”: U.S. President Joe Biden said he hopes a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza can be reached by Monday for the start of Muslim holy month of Ramadan, though Hamas officials responded that his comments were “premature” as there are still “big gaps that need to be bridged.”
• Russia jails veteran rights activist Orlov for 2-1/2 years: A Moscow court on Tuesday sentenced top human rights campaigner Oleg Orlov to two years and six months in prison for speaking out against the war in Ukraine. Orlov, 70, has served for more than two decades as one of the leaders of the Nobel Prize-winning Memorial human rights organization. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that sending troops to Ukraine wasn’t “in the interests” of Western countries, after French President Emmanuel Macron said he wasn’t ruling out this option.
• Biden and Trump face test in Michigan primary: U.S. voters will make their way to the polls in Michigan on Tuesday in a presidential primary that is expected to test Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s potential to win key groups of voters for the general election in the critical swing state.
• Pakistan court indicts jailed ex-PM Imran Khan on graft charges: Jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his third wife Bushra Bibi were indicted by a Pakistani court on Tuesday for allegedly receiving land as a bribe during his premiership, adding new charges to a string of convictions against Khan. The former leader, in jail since August 2023, has already been convicted in four cases with sentences of as much as 14 years in prison, but has denied the allegations.
• Senegal's Macky Sall announces amnesty bill to end poll-linked turmoil: Senegal's embattled President Macky Sall has proposed a general amnesty for political protesters arrested since 2021 during fresh talks to set a new date for presidential polls he’d deferred earlier this month, which sparked deadly clashes. According to some rights groups, more than 1,000 people have been arrested since 2021 amid the power struggle between Sall and opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. Sall reiterated his commitment to leave office before his mandate ends in April, and said elections will be held before the rainy season begins around July. Read more in this article Senegal's "Constitutional Coup" — Is Democracy In Africa A Lost Cause?, translated from French to English.
• New Zealand to repeal world-first tobacco ban, Cuban cigars exports boom: New Zealand is set to scrap the world’s first smoking ban passed under former prime minister Jacinda Arden’s government. Associate health minister Casey Costello said the government was still committed to reducing smoking but that it would take “a different regulatory approach.” Meanwhile, international sales of Cuban cigars have registered a 31% increase last year, representing a turnover of $721 million in 2023, as global demand rises for luxury products. Read more about how anti-smoking laws are changing around the world here.
• Tiny fish drops the bass: Scientists in Berlin have discovered that a 12-millimeter-long fish is able to make sounds reaching 140 decibels — the equivalent of a gunshot. The Danionella cerebrum, which could be using an organ called “swim bladder” as a drumming form of social communication, may be the loudest fish for its size yet found.
🗞️ FRONT PAGE
Swedish daily newspaper Göteborgs-Posten dedicates its front page to the arrival of Sweden as 32nd member of NATO, following the green light of the Hungarian parliament on Monday, after 18 months of delay. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called it “a historic day..”
📰 STORY OF THE DAY
Free press or Hamas agent? Inside Israel's campaign targeting Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza
Following the strike that hit Al Jazeera journalists Ismail Abu Omar and Ahmed Matar, posts spread on social media platforms calling Abu Omar a “terrorist” affiliated with Hamas. At the same time, a campaign by Israel's Foreign Ministry and military promoted the same allegations, reports Arabic-language independent digital media Daraj.
📺 Abu Omar and Matar were the latest journalists to be hit by Israeli airstrikes in the war. As of mid-February, 77 journalists had been killed in Gaza, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Once Al Jazeera began airing footage on its channels and social media accounts about the journalists professional careers and giving details of the attack, Israeli social media accounts rushed to circulate a counter-narrative. This counter-narrative sought to justify the direct bombing of the journalists in an area designated by the Israeli military as a safe zone.
💥 The area was hit by Israel's warplanes and drones the same day the attack against Al Jazeera journalists took place. Video footage aired by Al Jazeera shows that, just before he was hit and injured, Abu Omar spotted a drone flying over the area. Since the attack, Abu Omar has undergone three surgeries and is in “very critical" condition, according to Dr. Mohammed al-Far, head of an American medical delegation treating injured in Rafah hospitals.
📱 A video has circulated of Abu Omar on October 7, coinciding with Hamas fighters crossing the Gaza border. At the time, Abu Omar was covering the Hamas attack through his social media accounts. Israeli social media accounts reused the video and repeatedly published it, claiming that he was a “terrorist” participating in the Hamas attack. Accounts promoting this type of posts included those of former Israeli soldiers and others whose activity showed that they were likely working in a machine to promote and amplify the Israeli narrative about the war in Gaza.
➡️ Read more on Worldcrunch.com
📹 THIS HAPPENED VIDEO — TODAY IN HISTORY, IN ONE ICONIC PHOTO
#️⃣ BY THE NUMBERS
758,631
The number of babies born in Japan in 2023 has been tallied at 758,631, which is 5.1% less than the previous year, preliminary government data showed. Japan's top government spokesperson said there will be “unprecedented steps” in order to cope with the declining birthrate. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida refers to this trend as “the gravest crisis” in the country.
📣 VERBATIM
“We're close.”
— “My hope is by next Monday we'll have a ceasefire,” U.S. President Joe Biden stated, after some progress was reached in ongoing negotiations between Hamas and Israel representatives. Israeli hostages should be released in the next few days. Talking about the possible ceasefire to reporters in New York City, Biden said that “we’re not done yet, but we’re close.”
📸 PHOTO DU JOUR
(see above) Hundreds of farmers from agricultural organizations with tractors, banners and flags protesting during a massive demonstration on Castellana Street, towards the European Commission Office in Madrid. Their motto: “The countryside demands support, respect and recognition,” demanding solutions to the problems in the agricultural sector. — Photo: Luis Soto/ZUMA
👉 MORE FROM WORLDCRUNCH
• Putin, Trump, Netanyahu: When Pure Narcissism Triggers Global Catastrophe — LES ECHOS
• Forty-Five Years On, Why The West Continues To Tolerate Iran's Criminal Regime — KAYHAN-LONDON
• Society Of The Snow, Moral Decay: What The Netflix Oscar Hopeful Says About Today's Values— ETHIC
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