Why Russia's plans for a war of attrition is starting to look like a bad idea
Putin has threatened Ukraine with a long war in the hope that Western support will wane and that his troops will eventually outnumber Ukraine's. But his army has had a few difficult months and arms production can't keep up. Meanwhile, Western support for Kyiv is holding steady, writes Alfred Hackensberger in German daily Die Welt.
The Russian Beriev A-50 and its crew of 15 had just reached its patrol zone over the Sea of Azov on Sunday evening when the aircraft suddenly disappeared from the radar screens in Moscow. A short time before, an Il-22M1 Russian flying command center had already had to make an emergency landing. What happened?
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the A-50 — an early warning and control aircraft like NATO's Awacs, with a 300-million-euro price tag — had been shot down in the night sky; the Il-22 was irreparably damaged.
"For Russia, the loss is both an embarrassment and a catastrophe," says Italian military expert Thomas Theiner. "It was probably shot down with a German Patriot system that was mounted on a truck close to the front line to reach the target."
The German air defense system is also believed to be responsible for at least five downed Russian fighter jets that Ukraine claimed for itself in December.
Despite ongoing questions about Ukraine's prospects in the war, the past few months have not gone well for the Russian army. In addition to shooting down aircraft, Ukraine has been able to destroy a number of important Russian air defense systems and radar installations behind the front lines, as well as several military bases, naval vessels and the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the occupied Crimean peninsula. In addition, there were enormous losses on the battlefield.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Davos this week that the Patriot system was working even better than the U.S. had expected: "The Russians are shocked, and I'll tell you honestly, our partners are shocked that this system really works so well," said Zelensky. U.S. intelligence estimates that more than 220 Russian combat vehicles have been knocked out of action since October, equivalent to the vehicles of six battalions in total.
Also, 13,000 Russian soldiers are said to have been killed or wounded along the 50-kilometer-long axis from Avdiivka to Novopavlivka in eastern Ukraine. German military expert Nico Lange estimates that the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in this region could be as high as 20,000.
There are similar reports of devastating losses on other sections of the front where Russia is currently on the offensive. Moscow's ruthless consumption of human and material resources has been evident since the beginning of the invasion. Western intelligence agencies are convinced that Russia has now had to replace 90% of its troops. Many of its units have been redeployed for the second, third and some even for the fourth time. [...]
— Read the full article by Alfred Hackensberger for Die Welt, translated into English by Worldcrunch. | 
